Interest rate risk shows up in the timing mismatch between what
your assets earn and what your funding costs. The FPR gives an asset-side timing
picture — net long-term assets, the investment maturity ladder, and fixed-rate
real estate — plus, for credit unions under $500 million, NCUA's standardized
NEV shock. It cannot give you a funding-side timing picture: non-maturity shares are
reported entirely in the under-one-year bucket, exactly the way the UBPR treats
non-maturity deposits. Only the certificate and IRA ladder carries usable timing.
Direct measurement
- What share of assets are net long-term assets? Above or below peers?
- Where does your investment ladder sit — concentrated under a year, or
spread out past five and ten?
- How does that ladder compare to the credit union you're paired with?
- What share of loans is fixed-rate real estate? What share of assets?
- On the share structure page, what share of funding is non-maturity? Of the
certificates, how much matures inside a year?
- If both credit unions are under $500 million: what is each post-shock NEV ratio,
and each sensitivity? How do they compare to peers?
- Slide back through the earlier quarters — has your asset structure shifted,
or held steady?
Further discussion
- Your investment ladder and your fixed-rate real estate are two different long
positions. Which one is doing more to lengthen your balance sheet?
- If your assets are concentrated short, what does a rate cut do to your margin? If
concentrated long, what did the last rise already do to your economic value?
- Non-maturity shares are the largest single item on most of these balance sheets
and the FPR tells you nothing about their behavior. What would you need to know
about them to convert this asset-side picture into an actual risk position?
- The ENT applies a 1% base premium and a 4% shock premium to non-maturity shares
for every credit union alike. Would your own share behavior justify a larger premium
or a smaller one, and what would that do to your post-shock ratio?
- Is your current asset timing an intentional position, or the residue of what
members wanted to borrow?
- Over the past year, did your margin move the way your structure suggested it
should? If not, what does that tell you the data isn't showing?
- Between you and your paired credit union, who is better positioned for the rate
path you actually expect over the next 12–24 months?
The Estimated NEV Tool is NCUA's standardized calculation applied to
Call Report balances, not the credit union's own model, and NCUA runs it only below
$500 million in assets. Above that threshold the FPR prints N/A and so does this app.
A standardized shock is a screening device, not a measurement of your position.